TAMPA - Whether you're trying to sell your house or contemplating buying a home, there's one question on everyone's mind: Has the housing market bottomed out yet?
The answer varies, depending on who you ask. For months, economists and industry experts debated the question, as the number of Florida homes on the market rose dramatically and prices in some areas dropped.
There may be a glimmer of hope, however, according to a study released Thursday by the University of Florida. The single-family market has indeed bottomed out, the report says, and prices are expected to rise this year. The report urges potential buyers to act now.
"I expect that for most of Florida, prices are as good as they're going to get," said Wayne Archer, director of the Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies, which conducted the report. "This is comforting news."
The university surveyed industry professionals, including real estate lawyers, title insurers, financial advisers and real estate scholars. There were 318 respondents. This is the sixth quarterly survey the university has conducted. The questions are sent to the same 700 people each quarter. Respondents answered a series of questions in mid-January about their observations of the market. Their answers, Archer said, showed that respondents are seeing a drop in single-family housing prices and that a growing number of respondents think prices are staying even with inflation.
"It was the first time since the survey began that respondents' outlook on the market brightened," Archer said.
"When prices maintain the same level as inflation, then we're probably in some kind of equilibrium."
Some analysts and economists are doubtful and were quick to question the report.
"I see absolutely no scope for rising prices this year," said Per Gunnar Berglund, senior economist with Moody's Economy.com. "I think prices have a bit further to go."
The median sales price of existing single-family homes in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater area was $214,000 in January, down 7 percent from December and significantly below the real estate market's $239,900 peak in June, according to data released last month by the Florida Association of Realtors.
There were 1,768 sales in January, down 41 percent from a year ago and down 27 percent from December's sales volume of 2,438.
More than 34,000 existing homes are on the market in Hillsborough and Pinellas counties, according to local real estate trade groups.
Berglund says inventory levels in the Bay area are more than twice the normal level. It would take more than 16 months to sell all the houses, Berglund said.
"The ratio of homes on the market has risen way above the six-month supply that is considered equilibrium," Berglund said.
Tim Rogers, an economist at Briefing.com, was more optimistic.
"I think sales are starting to turn, but it might be a little longer before we see pricing turn," Rogers said. "We have lower interest rates and lower prices. These are a good recipe for the housing market."
The survey may offer encouraging news on the single-family housing front, but the condo market looked gloomy, especially in areas such as South Florida and Tampa Bay.
The most recent data from the Florida Association of Realtors show 379 condo sales in January, down 49 percent from 740 sales in the same month last year. Condo prices dropped 1 percent year over year to a median sales price of $183,200.
"If you're buying a home to live in for five years or more, you'll be OK," said Mike Larson, real estate analyst for Weiss Research, based in Jupiter. "But if you're looking at it purely from a financial standpoint, renting may be more economical."
Reporter Shannon Behnken can be reached at (813) 259-7804 or sbehnken@tampatrib.com.
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